This is not merely another round in the decades-long struggle between Israel and Iran and its proxies for regional hegemony. This is the big one and Israel’s aim is regime change.
Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, in a video message released shortly after the start of the war, said the joint US-Israeli military operation will allow for the Iranian people to topple the regime and establish a “free, peace-seeking Iran”.
US president Donald Trump also cited regime change as the aim of the war.
Israeli president Yitzhak Herzog called the operation a “dramatic and historic step”, expressing hope the offensive will bring a “historic change” for Israel and the entire Middle East.
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The initial wave of strikes targeted Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, president Masoud Pezeshkian, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard and other leading regime figures.
The critical military targets in the first days will be Iran’s air defence and radar instillations and what remains of Teheran’s missile stockpile, production facilities and launchers following the last round, the 12-day war last June.
More than 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 suicide drones were fired at Israel in June, killing 31 people and wounding more than 3,000. The devastation at the impact sites was on a level previously unseen in Israel.
The expectation is that this time the Iranian attacks will be heavier, particularly if Teheran’s leaders believe the regime is in danger.
Israel’s multilayered air defence provides significant, but not hermetic, protection. Some projectiles are likely to penetrate and hit civilian centres. Hospitals have evacuated non-critical patients and are operating on emergency footing, converting underground parking lots to emergency wards.
A key question is whether Iranian proxies will join the war, particularly Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. If so, Israel could again soon be fighting another multi-front war. The biggest threat is from Hizbullah but the Shia militia was significantly degraded during the recent war against Israel and is under intense pressure from Lebanese leaders not to join the fray.
The war is already a regional conflict, with Iran targeting US bases across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait.
The operation has been planned for months in intense detail with close co-operation between American and Israeli leaders and military commanders.
The Iranian military is no match for the array of firepower the US has amassed in the region in recent months. However, the endgame remains unclear and may depend on how much damage Iran can inflict on US forces and Israel in the coming days and, critically, on the willingness of the Iranian people to rise up against the regime.
