Decapitation does not necessarily ensure regime change. The death in a US-Israeli air strike of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday means a change in personnel and, perhaps, policy adjustments at the top of the regime – but not major change.
Unless there is a breakdown in security or a power struggle between potential replacement individuals and factions, succession should be smooth. National security council head Ali Larijani said: “The enemy is deluded if it believes that assassinating leaders can destabilise Iran.”
US president Donald Trump said the long-term US aim was to effect regime change. However, this would be unlikely to succeed unless backed by the Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) and an effective, unified domestic opposition.
These essential factors are absent.
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The IRCG is a pillar of the regime while Iran’s security forces have brutally suppressed protests and crippled the domestic opposition.
The Pahlavi dynasty fell in February 1979 because the army fractured and, during his exile in France, ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had created a countrywide revolutionary opposition movement. After returning to Tehran, after 14 years in exile, he launched the “Iranian Islamic Revolution”. He died at 89 in June 1989 and was succeeded by Khamenei.
The complicated Iranian model of governance he installed consists of a two-layered structure. It is topped by an unelected theocracy that dominates the elected legislature as well as the administration. Clerics head and permeate the system, which adheres to Islamic precepts and practices.
Regime stalwarts president Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and a jurist from the guardian council have taken charge during a “transitional phase”, the Iranian state news agency reported. The council approves or vetoes legislation passed by the assembly, supervises elections and approves or disqualifies candidates seeking to run in local, parliamentary and presidential elections.
Potential successors to Khamenei include his son Mojtaba Khamenei and close aides Ali Larijani, expediency council chief Sadiq Larijani, assembly of experts’ members Mohammad Mirbagheri and Mohsen Araki, and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder.
The expediency council advises the supreme leader and resolves differences between the government and legislature, while the assembly of experts appoints the supreme leader and vets potential candidates for election.
Survival is the urgent objective of Khamenei’s successors. They rely on the civil administration, national institutions, the IRGC, the Basij youth militia and regular army to preserve the regime.
The recovery process could be hampered by the absence of 30 key officials who were killed in a US strike on a meeting in the capital. State TV revealed that among the fatalities were armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Pakpour, and head of the defence council Ali Shamkhani.
Although expecting an attack, many Iranians have been shocked by the broad, continuing US-Israeli offensive. As strikes continued on Sunday, scores of Iranians braved arrest by taking to the streets to celebrate Khamenei’s death while black-clad thousands gathered in Tehran’s Enghelab (Revolution) Square brandishing flags and Khamenei photos.
On the regional front, trend setter Saudi Arabia has condemned Iranian missile and drone explosions in Riyadh and eastern Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Bahrain. Iran has alienated neighbouring states – which it sees as aiding the US-Israeli attack – by mounting retaliatory strikes it says are in self-defence, permitted by Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Shia Iran’s traditional regional Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia has expressed solidarity with targeted Gulf allies and put its “capabilities at their disposal”, the kingdom’s foreign ministry stated. However, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, told Trump in February that he backed a US attack, “despite his public support for a diplomatic solution”, the Washington Post reported.
