On Wednesday night Hizbullah launched hundreds of rockets and drones from Lebanon towards Israel in the biggest attack to date in the current war by the Iranian-backed group.
Even before the Wednesday night attack Israeli politicians and Israel’s military were discussing the possibility of an operation to occupy southern Lebanon, up to the Litani river, to stop the rocket fire or an incursion to seven or eight kilometres north of the border, creating a new security zone.
Soon after the war began, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed several brigades immediately north of the border, and further forces were subsequently sent north in advance of a possible ground manoeuvre deeper into Lebanon.
The November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, under which the Beirut government committed to disarming Hizbullah, was considered a substantial achievement for Israel. It followed Israel’s killing or maiming of many senior Hizbullah commanders in a high-profile operation that caused their pagers to explode, and the assassination of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
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The rocket fire stopped, Israelis who had fled the northern border returned home, and Israeli leaders told the public that the capabilities of the Shia militia had been significantly degraded.
The government in Beirut exerted pressure on Hizbullah, with some success, to disarm, particularly south of the Litani river. Meanwhile the Israeli air force continued to hit Hizbullah, despite the ceasefire.
Now, Hizbullah has again engaged in battle – starting on March 2nd, just after the US and Israel struck Iran – and continues to hit Israel’s home front, and not only along the northern border.
Defence minister Israel Katz threatened on Thursday to hit civilian infrastructure in Lebanon and punish it by taking control of Lebanese territory until Hizbullah is disarmed.
The Beirut government has offered direct talks with Israel on a new ceasefire, and the US and France are working for a diplomatic solution to prevent a further escalation. However, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar says Israel “does not plan to hold direct talks with the Lebanese government in the coming days”, adding that Israel expects the Lebanese government to “take significant steps” against Hizbullah to prevent it firing at Israel.
The renewed confrontation with Hizbullah has met an angry response from some Israelis, particularly residents of the Galilee, who returned to their homes after the ceasefire and are now sleeping in bomb shelters again.
For months, the public was told Hizbullah had been heavily beaten, that its new leader, Naim Qassem, was ineffective, and that it wouldn’t dare launch a second front in the event of a war with Iran. Hizbullah, according to the official narrative, was only a shadow of the organisation that once possessed 120,000 projectiles pointing at Israel.
Did the Israeli military fail to alert the political leadership over the real threat still posed by Hizbullah, or did the political echelon ignore the intelligence that was presented?
Israel expected Hizbullah to join the fray following the killing of Ali Khamenei but the narrative was that the group had fallen into an Israeli trap and that now the IDF could “finish the job”.
But Israel also underestimated Hizbullah’s resilience. Lebanon’s political leaders have shown determination to move against Hizbullah as an armed organisation, but the central government and the Lebanese Armed Forces remain reluctant to move decisively against Hizbullah, fearing another Lebanese civil war.
And Israel risks being sucked into another Lebanese quagmire, reminiscent of its 1982–2000 occupation.
