The 15-point US peace plan for ending the war on Iran is an outdated version of a proposal put forward last May that was undone by Israel’s 12-day war on Iran.
On the nuclear front, the plan demanded that Iran halt domestic uranium enrichment, hand over enriched material to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and shut main nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.
After the plan was tabled and rejected by Iran, the US and Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear sites in June, targeting its 440kg stockpile of uranium, which was enriched to 60 per cent (close to the 90 per cent used for weapons).
This, in effect, cancelled Iran’s nuclear programme.
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This month the IAEA reported Iranian activity and US-Israeli strikes at the nuclear sites, particularly at Natanz and Isfahan, and voiced concern over limited access for inspectors.
IAEA director general Rafael Grossi has warned against targeting nuclear facilities, as dangerous radiation could be released.
On the political-military front, the original plan called for Iran to end its support for Hamas in Palestine, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Iraqi Shia militias and Houthi militants in Yemen. It stipulated that Iran limit its ballistic missile programme to strictly defensive purposes.
In return, Washington, would lift nuclear-related sanctions on Tehran and support the establishment of a civilian nuclear programme.
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These demands have been overridden by developments. Israel has largely eliminated Hamas as a threat in Gaza and curbed Hizbullah in Lebanon. Iraqi Shia militias have been corralled by Baghdad, and the Houthis have chosen to avoid US-Israeli strikes by ceasing attacks in the Red Sea on US- and Israeli-flagged shipping. Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones has been bombed, reducing stocks and compelling Iran to ration the use of these weapons in the ongoing war.
Nevertheless, Iranian drones and missiles have struck Israel and neighbouring Gulf countries. Tehran fired its first known long-range ballistic missile on Friday towards a US-British Indian Ocean military base 4,000km away, expanding the risk of attacks beyond the Middle East.
New provisions have been added to the outdated plan. On uranium enrichment, a regional consortium would be established linking Iran, the US, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The consortium would have an external manager, and enrichment would take place in the region but outside Iran. Enrichment would be capped at 3.67 per cent purity for use in nuclear power plants and distributed to plants in consortium members. This arrangement would be limited as Iran and the Emirates are the only countries other than Israel to have nuclear power plants.
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On freedom of navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states seek non-interference guarantees from Iran and, ideally, an agreement to exclude Hormuz and other energy sites from future regional disputes.
In a temporary, pragmatic US reversal of policy due to energy shortages and price spikes caused by the war, it has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil loaded on ships for delivery. – Additional reporting: Reuters
