Since US president Donald Trump’s recent declaration that the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign “completely obliterated” Iran’s ballistic missiles programme, Tehran’s missile attacks continue.
Saturday night saw nearly 200 injured by Iranian missiles in the “largest casualty event” for Israel since this war started. Early this week, the United Arab Emirates intercepted five ballistic missiles, and shrapnel from missiles targeting central Israel caused additional injuries.
“Around 1,400 missiles have been confirmed launched, though the exact types are muddier in terms of quantity,” says Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company Rane. “It can be said that a significant portion of their arsenal has been deployed and/or destroyed.”
Nevertheless, he doubts there has, or will be, a “mortal blow” on the programme unless Iran’s supply lines to Russia and China are severed and related industries occupied.
READ MORE
“When the war ends, these will be the means by which Iran reconstitutes its arsenal,” says Bohl.
Iran military expert Farzin Nadimi, a defence and security analyst and senior fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argues “a high bar” on estimates should be maintained to avoid surprise further down the road.
“I don’t believe Iran’s arsenal of missiles and drones is anywhere close to a critical level yet, even if their production network and storage sites have been hammered hard,” Nadimi says.
Iran has maintained “large and dispersed stockpiles” of such weapons for scenarios exactly like this.
“We should also assume that despite the ongoing comprehensive US-Israeli aerial campaign aimed at destroying Iran’s military industrial infrastructure, Iran has retained some missile and especially drone production capacity in dispersed and hardened locations,” Nadimi says.
“These will continue to support their launch units and can quickly expand to replenish stockpiles once the bombing stops.”
[ Iran rejects US peace plan, offers its own conditions to end warOpens in new window ]
Bohl believes significant numbers of Iran’s less advanced short-range ballistic missiles remain intact, potentially enabling Tehran to threaten Gulf states in an “open-ended campaign,” especially if they continue attacks at the slower but steady pace they’ve adopted.
“These less sophisticated systems are easier to deploy, hide and replace, making them a viable long-term threat to the Gulf and US military forces; they are less so a threat directly to Israel,” Bohl says.
Both analysts believe Iran can continue offensive attacks for the time being.
“It’s probable that Iran can keep this up for months – as Russia has demonstrated, a missile and drone war can be open-ended,” Bohl says. “It might not be able to keep up the same pace for a long time, but it can keep replacing missiles and drones to retain its existing threats.”
And while he believes it’s “highly unlikely” the US and Israel can “obliterate” all Iranian missiles, they can make “a dent in them” and “shape the geography” of where they are launched.
For example, pushing them further away from the Gulf increases their flight time and thus the likelihood of successful interceptions at greater distances.
Nadimi suggests Iran may have retained “about 40-50 per cent” of its ballistic missile stockpiles, with a “larger proportion” of them close-range and short-range than the more sophisticated medium-range models. Even many of these surviving missiles may have become trapped inside Iran’s cavernous underground “missile cities”.
“I think they can continue at this rate for the next two months at best,” Nadimi says.
“But maintaining this rate depends on factors such as Iran’s ability to move assets and the US-Israel continuing persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance over a large part of Iran where launches are made.”
