British prime minister Rishi Sunak had a tough first 100 days in the job, as he had to sack Conservative party chairman Nadhim Zahawi and deal with multiple allegations of Tory “sleaze”. The next 50 days, which run to the middle of next week, are shaping up much better.
His government has restored fiscal calm, Sunak’s Windsor Framework peace deal with the European Union on Northern Ireland’s Brexit trade is expected to pass its first parliamentary vote test next week, and now it seems Sunak also may be reeling in Britain’s striking public service unions.
Most strands of the country’s public services have had industrial action in recent months. Teachers, nurses, doctors, ambulance drivers, border staff, train drivers and civil servants have all held strikes, sometimes co-ordinated, to give Britain a retro-1970s air of discontent at times.
Sunak’s government has stubbornly refused to offer the inflation-matching-or-above pay rises demanded by many workers. Britain, with £2 trillion of public debt and a stalled economy, would struggle to afford it. Sunak and his “padlock pockets” chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, have also wagered that their hand in negotiations would be strengthened as time went on and inflation fell.
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Forecasts this week from the Office of Budget Responsibility, the government’s independent financial watchdog, suggest UK inflation is on course to dip below 3 per cent by the end of the year. The importance of this appears to have landed with some union leaders, who previously were seeking rises for their members of double-digit percentages when inflation was at similar levels.
Falling inflation
A new £4 billion pay deal with health unions includes a pay rise of 5 per cent. Teachers in England, who in the last few days have agreed to enter talks, are likely to eke out a little more. Devolved governments in Scotland and Wales have offered their teachers 7-8 per cent. Sunak’s government is likely to offer those in England something on the low side of that range. As inflation falls they might accept it.
The most intractable dispute, which involves rail workers at 18 train operators, also appears to be nearing conclusion. They are not government employees but the companies involved need the imprimatur of the government-controlled rail network to budget for pay rises. More talks are due next week.
As Sunak’s government picks off the unions one by one, the sense that Britain is heading for some sort of national public service breakdown is slowly, but very surely, abating. Following on from Sunak’s other recent successes, another feeling is also returning to Westminster: grown-up government works.