Much like generals, successful political leaders are lucky or good. With his timing, Scotland’s first minister Humza Yousaf has not been lucky.
The Glaswegian son of Pakistani immigrants won a bruising contest in spring to replace his mentor Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the separatist Scottish National Party and the country. Six days after Yousaf was sworn in, Sturgeon’s husband was arrested in a financial scandal that has dogged the SNP.
Yousaf battled through summer and a whirlwind of challenges, including steep poll drops and the arrest of Sturgeon herself. He expected the job to be tough but “nobody could have predicted what I would be confronted with”.
[ Humza Yousaf suggests Ireland and Scotland co-operate on housing and energyOpens in new window ]
Yet on October 5th, Scotland’s youngest and first Muslim leader took the front cover of Time magazine as a “trailblazer shaping the future”. Making a Time cover is a huge moment for any politician, but the timing was off again. The next day results came back in a byelection. The SNP got a thumping from Labour that, if repeated across Scotland at next year’s general election, could wipe out most of its Westminster MPs, and Yousaf’s authority. Time, or time ticking?
The day after that was much worse. Hamas launched its murderous attack on Israel, whose bombardment in response trapped Yousaf’s parents-in-law in Gaza where they were visiting family. Yousaf launched an emotional appeal to get them out, the strain of his loved ones’ ordeal etched across his face at his party’s conference.
Six weeks on, his wife Nadia El-Nakla’s parents, Elizabeth and Maged, are finally safe and home from Gaza, but Nadia’s brother Mohammed, a doctor, remains there as death and suffering stalks the land.
On Tuesday evening as we sit in his office at the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh, and two days before he is to fly to Dublin for a British Irish Council meeting, Yousaf reads aloud texts that he exchanged with Mohammed the previous night. “My brother, I’m thinking of you,” Yousaf wrote. “I can’t imagine what you’re going through.”
“We are encountering young children who don’t know their identity,” came the reply. “They have lost their families and in among the bodies we are searching for their relatives.”
Yousaf pauses after reading the messages, blinks at his phone and swallows hard. Politics can be a rough business. It is smooth as silk compared with what some people must face.
Yousaf led a debate about Gaza and Israel in the Holyrood chamber on Tuesday that culminated in the devolved parliament voting for an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas. It is close to the position advocated by Irish Government members, whom Yousaf meets this week in Dublin.
“If being elected and being in a government is about anything, it is leadership,” says Yousaf. “It is important that we demonstrate leadership where we can.”
Yet as Ireland has discovered, taking a strong line on Israel brings significant pressures. Ireland faces complaints from supporters of Israel that the Republic doesn’t show the same concern when Jews are targeted. Is Scotland in danger of being tarred with that brush?
“There can be a danger of that. That’s why I always engage with certain communities where I can, whether that is Scotland’s Israelis, the Scottish Jewish community, Scottish Muslims and Scottish Palestinians. Scotland’s Jewish community knows it has a first minister who understands they are grieving,” says Yousaf.
“But you have to be on the right side, even if there is a political cost. You’ve got to tread carefully, but ultimately when we see this scale of destruction and devastation, we can’t afford not to choose a side. That side is humanity.”
Yousaf says he received “blowback” from James Cleverly, who has since been replaced as UK foreign secretary by David Cameron, for criticising the UK’s stance over Gaza: “It’s fair to say the former foreign secretary didn’t like me calling out some of the actions and remarks of the UK government on a few occasions, and he made that pretty clear.”
He expresses surprise when told that Cameron once described Gaza as a “prison camp” back in 2010. “I didn’t know that,” says Yousaf, his eyebrows aloft.
His wife’s parents are now safe but Yousaf is worried about his mother-in-law, Elizabeth. He emphasises he is not a clinician, but he sees in her “the classic signs” of post-traumatic stress: “She is getting flashbacks, night terrors [and anxiety] in the evening when the sun sets, which in Scotland is early now. She didn’t know if she was going to survive.”
Gaza aside, Yousaf faces mounting political challenges at home. His health secretary, Michael Matheson, is under pressure after his sons ran up an £11,000 (€12,600) bill paid by taxpayers on his parliamentary iPad by streaming football matches while in Morocco on holidays. Matheson has been accused of only belatedly coming clean. Yousaf says his colleague “should have handled it better” and was right to apologise and will pay the money back. But now he should “get on with the job”.
“The actions he took… were clearly designed to protect his family,” says Yousaf, who has also faced scrutiny for his handling of the matter. Some of the party’s Westminster MPs are annoyed the row crowded out coverage of how the SNP in London has exposed divisions in Labour over Gaza.
“I’ve got a strong relationship with Stephen Flynn [the SNP’s Westminster leader] and have done for a while now. [But] it’s fair and honest to say it is never a good time for an issue like [Matheson’s] to happen.”
After 16 years running Scotland’s government and the stalling of its bid for independence from the UK, the SNP is in a difficult moment. Yet Yousaf insists it is still in “good health”. If it wins a majority (29 after boundary changes) of Scotland’s Westminster seats in the next election, it will take that as a mandate for a fresh push for a new breakaway referendum. What about the real risk that it falls below that marker? Its opponents will say the SNP’s independence dream is over.
“They would say that anyway. There is always a risk in every strategy. We are still the largest in Scotland by quite some distance. We have the ground troops [for an election].”
The party’s activists were sharply divided during the leadership contest, when Yousaf pipped his rival, then-finance secretary Kate Forbes. The two clashed bitterly over his criticism of her conservative social views and her scathing assessment of his abilities. Forbes is now a backbencher, but many see her as a skulking leader-in-waiting, should he falter. Yousaf scotches the notion that he could bring her back into the senior fold.
“Kate and I get along well. She is a tremendous talent. [But] I’m not looking to reshuffle my government. We have a really strong team. Whether she is a front bencher or a back bencher, Kate has got a really significant contribution to make.”
Yousaf wants the SNP to help banish Tory rule in the UK. But Labour, the only realistic alternative, aims to win power by hoovering up SNP seats in Scotland. If Yousaf’s party can confound polls and staunch its losses, it could yet deprive Labour of a working majority and give it leverage.
“Of course I’d be willing to have discussions with Keir Starmer about how we could support a minority Labour government,” Yousaf confirms. But he adds the first item on his price list would be a fresh independence referendum, which Starmer would resist. Have discussions happened already?
“If they did, I wouldn’t tell you. We haven’t had any formal discussions of that nature. If there was any private conversations going on, then they would remain private,” says Yousaf. He suggests the SNP could co-operate with Labour on specific issues, such as child poverty. If Labour triumphs next year, Yousaf has far fewer cards to play.
The dizzying array of challenges stacked in front of Scotland’s affable young leader would be enough to melt even the oldest of heads. Yousaf insists he is up for the fight. “You don’t go for the job as first minister without realising every day is going to be stressful, and some are going to be bloody stressful.
“But I am confident that because of the policy and record we have got, and the leadership I can provide, that this is an election the SNP should win in Scotland.”
