Britain’s Conservative party has warned its supporters that Labour will benefit if they switch their vote to Reform UK, a right-wing anti-immigration party founded by Nigel Farage that could do serious damage to the Tories in this year’s general election.
Reform has confirmed it intends to run candidates in every constituency in Britain in the election, which is expected in May or, more likely, as late as November. Tory MPs fear this will split the conservative vote in many areas, potentially handing dozens of marginal seats to Labour and hastening the demise of prime minister Rishi Sunak’s government.
Reform’s leader, Richard Tice, told journalists at a press conference in London on Wednesday that his party would not enter a non-compete pact with the Conservatives “under any circumstances”. Reform’s forerunner, the Brexit Party, chose not to compete with many Tory candidates in the 2019 election, as part of a strategy to stymie opposition to Brexit.
Tice said “the truth is the Tories are [now] terrified” of Reform, which is polling at close to 10 per cent. He also told the press gathering that Farage remained undecided about a possible return to the fray. Political surveys suggest Reform’s poll numbers would be closer to 15 per cent if Farage returned to lead the party he founded. He is currently its honorary president.
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Farage, with the possible exception of Boris Johnson, is the most recognisable political figure in Britain and has hinted in recent weeks at a potential return to frontline politics, following his high-profile stint on the I’m a Celebrity… reality television show. However, he also told The Irish Times in September that he had little desire to run for election again, and believed he was more effective as an activist and media personality.
Tice told journalists he had spoken frequently in recent weeks to Farage, who was “giving a lot of thought” to what role he might play in the upcoming election. He conceded, however, that the “least likely” outcome would be for Farage to run again himself for the House of Commons: he has lost all seven previous bids to become an MP.
Recent polling by More in Common for the Daily Telegraph predicted Reform could cost the Tories up to 35 seats, which along with a Labour revival in Scotland would sweep the Conservatives from office and hand Labour leader Keir Starmer a large majority.
Reform on Wednesday launched its political strategy for the year and said its mission was to guard against the “Starmergeddon” of a Labour victory, which, it claimed, would lead to higher taxes and spending, more immigration, tougher net zero climate laws and the UK remaining closer to the European Union.
It claimed the Tories and Labour were “two sides of the same socialist coin” and that only it could “save Britain” by cutting government spending as well as taxes, and also by introducing a “one in, one out” policy on immigration.
Conservative chairman Richard Holden warned his party’s supporters on Wednesday that “a vote for Reform will only strengthen Labour’s hand”.
While Reform could pick up a sizeable chunk of votes, its chances of winning any seats are slim under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, which does not favour smaller parties.
Sunder Katwala, the director of the British Future think tank, said on Wednesday that Reform might cost the Tories a “couple of dozen” seats but that it would struggle to have any MPs of its own unless a rump of Tory MPs defected.
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