The two main contenders to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister of Scotland were jockeying for position late on Tuesday evening, as the Holyrood parliament prepared for a debate on Wednesday afternoon on a motion of no confidence in the entire devolved government.
Kate Forbes, who was narrowly defeated last year by Mr Yousaf in the contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), confirmed she was considering a second tilt at the job. The favourite of the party establishment, SNP veteran John Swinney, who already has the backing of some of its highest-profile elected members, was also weighing a bid.
Neither potential candidate had yet formally declared their entry into the race to replace Mr Yousaf, with nominations open until next Monday. However, supporters of Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes urged both to step into the race while, in the background at Holyrood, both sides took soundings and lobbied members of the Scottish parliament (MSPs) for support.
Ms Forbes told reporters she had felt a “groundswell of support” from members of the party. She confirmed she was “considering all options” and that she would do what she felt was best for her party, her family and the SNP.
In the immediate aftermath of Mr Yousaf’s announcement on Monday that he would resign, senior members of the SNP briefed that Ms Forbes might be persuaded not to run. Many senior leadership figures quickly swung in behind Mr Swinney, who previously led the party 20 years ago and was also deputy first minister under Ms Sturgeon.
Mr Swinney told reporters on Monday he was giving “serious consideration” to a leadership tilt to help steady the party after over a year of turmoil since Ms Sturgeon resigned last February, before a series of SNP scandals. On Tuesday, Mr Swinney again indicated his interest when he said it “wouldn’t be my style to ignore the representations made to me”.
There were signals late on Tuesday, however, that Ms Forbes was seriously considering taking it to a contest with Mr Swinney, were he to formally declare a run. Other SNP members speculated she might be prepared to pull out for a senior cabinet post.
Stephen Flynn, the leader of the SNP group of MPs at Westminster, backed Mr Swinney, whom he said was the “only candidate” who could steer the party through the challenges ahead. Other senior figures who themselves would have been considered contenders, such as Scotland’s education minister Jenny Gilruth, also backed Mr Swinney.
Ms Forbes is backed by MSPs including Michelle Thomson, Fergus Ewing and former minister Ivan McKee, who called the 34-year-old the “best candidate”.
On Wednesday, Holyrood will debate a Labour no-confidence motion in the government, although it seems doomed to failure after the Scottish Greens indicated they would not back it. Mr Yousaf quit on Monday after he botched the ending of the SNP’s government partnership with the Greens.