Voters go to the polls in England on Thursday in a crucial set of local elections that could determine the immediate future of Tory prime minister, Rishi Sunak.
More than 2,600 local authority seats are up for grabs in 107 councils across England, where there are also 11 mayoral elections also being held. There is also a vote in a crucial Westminster byelection in Blackpool, where Labour expects to continue its streak of overturning Conservative majorities in advance of the general election expected later this year.
In addition to the political elections, voters in England and Wales will also choose police commissioners in 37 districts in England and Wales. There are no votes taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland.
The council elections include several areas of the so-called Red Wall of working class areas in the north and midlands of England, which will be closely watched for clues around voter sentiment.
Donald Trump’s return adds urgency and uncertainty to third winter of full Russia-Ukraine war
Matt Gaetz perched on the tightrope between political glory and infamy
Vote on assisted dying Bill due to be a cliffhanger as Britain’s Labour opposition mounts
China may be better prepared for Trump this time
Mr Sunak’s Conservative party is braced to lose more than half of its 919 seats. If, as some pundits suggest, it loses more than 480 seats, it will equate to the party’s worst result in a set of local elections. Labour is defending 928 seats and expects to make significant gains.
The Liberal Democrats hold 415 seats in the areas affected, and are also hoping to make gains at the expense of the Tories, especially in the southwest of England where it has several target seats for the general election.
A battering for the Tories is already “priced in” for the local elections, but a record defeat could prompt an attempted heave by Tory rebels who want to see Mr Sunak replaced. It is seen as doubtful in Westminster, however, that they could muster enough dissident votes among MPs to oust the prime minister in a confidence vote.
The situation could become more serious for Mr Sunak if the Conservative candidates suffer a wipeout in the mayoral elections, which include big urban areas such as London, Manchester, the West Midlands region around Birmingham and the Tees Valley around Middlesbrough.
Labour’s mayor of London Sadiq Khan is expected to hold off a challenge by the Conservative party’s candidate Susan Hall, but the Tees Valley and West Midlands votes will be seen as crucial to Mr Sunak’s attempts to maintain authority in his party.
Both mayoral positions are held by Tory incumbents – Andy Street in West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valey – and a defeat of both of them would be disastrous for Mr Sunak. In particular, a Labour win in the Tees Valley would give a strong indication of voter sentiment in the crucial Red Wall for the general election, although polls suggest Mr Houchen might hang on.
In Blackpool South, a byelection is also taking place to replace Scott Benton, who was suspended by the Tories last year amid a secret lobbying scandal. He had a slim majority and Labour is confident of victory. Westminster observers, however, will be on the lookout for how the insurgent right-wing party, Reform UK, fares.
Reform, which was cofounded by Nigel Farage, is expected to leech votes away from the Tories in several crucial seats in the general election.
National polls put Labour about 20 percentage points ahead of the Tories, leading to expectations of a change in government at the next general election.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
