As Westminster returns on Monday from the summer recess, Keir Starmer is entering what is likely to be a defining period of his term as Britain’s prime minister.
His biggest rival, Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, is in the ascendancy; his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, could be going in the other direction. Starmer must also juggle an array of foreign policy conundrums that distract him while his domestic agenda flounders.
If the prime minister flubs the crucial two months or so ahead, his government could be back in crisis mode by the time winter sets in. As his first week back begins, here are five pressing problems in the prime minister’s in-tray:
1 – Immigration and the threat from Reform.
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Farage’s upstart right-wing party has now led Starmer’s Labour in about 90 successive opinion polls. The latest, a YouGov survey last Wednesday, had Labour at a low of 20 per cent, just three points ahead of the still-toxic Tories and eight points behind Reform.
As Farage prepares to maul Labour in next May’s Scottish and Welsh devolved elections, as well as a raft of English council votes, the prime minister must chip away at Reform’s lead before a sense of it being the government-in-waiting beds in.
There is bewilderment in Labour’s ranks that Downing Street allowed Farage and Reform a clear run to dominate the airwaves over the recess with a blitz of policy announcements on migration. The issue has shot back to the top of the list of voters’ concerns, with protests at asylum hotels, angst over small boat arrivals and race rows over flying flags.
Starmer will be desperate for the asylum seeker returns pilot deal he recently agreed with France to produce results. Meanwhile, the home office is set for an October court showdown over asylum hotels that could upend a plank of government asylum strategy.
If Starmer doesn’t get a grip on the issue, expect the chorus of Labour voices calling for Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights to grow.
2 – Reshuffle
This week, Starmer will unveil a reshuffle of his junior ministerial ranks, after also overhauling his top team of advisers – again.
The prime minister is not expected to make changes to his senior cabinet team, but may promote fresh talent from the 2024 MP intake. Some are restless at the thought of being just one-term MPs.
Starmer is also refreshing his Downing Street team of economic advisers as he strives to return the economy, which is weaker ground for Reform, to the front of voters’ minds.
3 – Party Conference
Labour’s annual jamboree in Liverpool at the end of September is a chance for Starmer to enjoy unfettered media coverage as he tries to re-establish his agenda. Despite last July’s landslide election win, the mood at last year’s conference was nervy rather than celebratory. If things continue to go south, this year’s event could be a carnival of angst.
4 – Budget
Due to a sluggish economy and backbench rebellions over cuts that have limited her room for manoeuvre, Reeves must find up to £50 billion (€57.5 billion) in stealth tax rises and cuts to balance her autumn budget, expected towards the end of October.
This year’s fiscal set piece is crucial for the future of Reeves and, by association, Starmer. If she gets it wrong, the prime minister could be forced to throw Reeves overboard. If he ditches his chancellor, how long until Starmer gets ditched himself?
5 – Foreign policy
US president Donald Trump arrives for a state visit on September 17th. That brings enough political peril on its own.
Starmer’s government is also preparing to recognise the state of Palestine at an upcoming United Nations assembly, while the prime minister is also pressing Trump over a Ukraine peace deal with Russia.
He must tiptoe his way around a US president who has shown himself to be an unpredictable ally, best encapsulated in his global tariffs war. Even though his domestic agenda needs his full attention, Starmer still can’t afford to ignore foreign policy.
