The ironic thing about UK prime minister Keir Starmer’s battle to survive in his post is that most of his biggest rivals really need him to hang on in the job – for now.
The resignation on Sunday of Cork man Morgan McSweeney as Starmer’s chief of staff may buy his old boss a little time as he seeks a foothold in the storm caused by the Jeffrey Epstein links of the UK’s former ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.
But with a byelection and other votes looming, it may not buy him much time. Starmer is widely seen as already fatally wounded by events, and also by Labour’s alarming slide in polls. Even if he hangs on now, he could be easily knocked off course by the next setback.
The sense of chaos around his administration deepened further on Monday, with the unexpected resignation of Downing Street’s director of communications, Tim Allan. An old Blairite, he was the fourth person to fill the role in barely a year.
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Yet none of Labour’s oft-touted leadership contenders – Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner or Andy Burnham – are in a strong position to take on Starmer as things stand.
There is a sense in Westminster that this could be why the prime minister ends up limping on for now.
Streeting’s desire for the role is barely concealed, but his immediate difficulty lies in the fact that he, too, is seen as being close to Mandelson, despite the latter’s Epstein links.
The UK government last week acceded to a Conservative Party “humble address”, an arcane parliamentary procedure that obliges it to publish all communications by ministers with Mandelson in the period leading up to his Washington appointment in December 2024.
If Streeting texted or emailed Mandelson during this time, those messages are likely to become public in coming weeks. If they are embarrassing for him, he may be too tainted to challenge Starmer or even to contest the leadership if Starmer quits. Streeting needs the Mandelson storm to pass before he can make a move.
Former deputy prime minister Rayner, who quit last September after underpaying stamp duty on a new flat, is seen by many as Streeting’s main rival for the post. She is also far more popular than he is with the ordinary Labour members who will choose the leader in the event of a contest. Yet Rayner is still awaiting a final ruling from tax authorities on her stamp duty issues. Until that is sorted out, she may be unable to run.
Privately, some Labour MPs don’t see Rayner as leadership material anyway, although she has confounded expectations before. She may also decide not to run and act as kingmaker.
Burnham, meanwhile, is still hamstrung by the fact that he is not an MP – which means he cannot be leader. The Greater Manchester mayor was blocked by the party from a byelection for a Westminster seat this month.
If Burnham is to have any chance of succeeding Starmer – and polling of Labour members show he would have a strong chance if he were an MP – then he must hope Starmer remains in place long enough for him to find another route back to Westminster. There are rumours that he might get another chance soon.
If, however, Starmer decides this week that he cannot continue, one possibility is he resigns with immediate effect. In this scenario, the UK Labour Party’s rule book stipulates that the cabinet would choose an interim leader in conjunction with the party’s national executive committee.
It was speculated by senior party figures on Sunday that they might choose a “safe pair of hands” such as foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, defence secretary John Healey or even, as a complete outside bet, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn as interim leader.
The interim would remain in place until a contest took place for a permanent leader. To run in any contest, each contender would need the backing of about 81 Labour MPs – one-fifth of the parliamentary party.
The last time this happened with Labour in government, there was no contest. Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007. No other candidate had enough MP nominations.
This time round, there is no Brown-style colossus waiting in the wings. It seems unlikely any one candidate could sew up the entire, fractious Labour parliamentary party. A contest seems likely, even though many in Labour hope otherwise.
Cooper is believed to have secretly teamed up with net zero secretary and former party leader Ed Miliband. If she became leader, the theory goes, she would make him chancellor of the exchequer.
Cooper is also not particularly popular with Labour members, whereas Miliband is very popular and might smooth out her dour image. Also, the Labour rule book says an interim leader cannot change the cabinet. This means, say, Cooper could not make Miliband chancellor unless she had the job permanently.
The soft-left tradition of the Labour Party is seen as being in the ascendancy at the moment, as illustrated by the popularity of its standard bearers, Rayner and Burnham. If there were a contest, and neither of those two could run, then deputy party leader Lucy Powell could emerge as a soft-left candidate by default. She has few backers in the cabinet from which Starmer sacked her last year. But she is still popular with members, who voted her deputy leader in the autumn.
Another possible contender is Shabana Mahmood, the hardline home secretary who comes from the “Blue Labour”, socially conservative Labour tradition – the sort of voters that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is targeting. Again, Mahmood is not popular with ordinary members.
Labour sources suggested Starmer was teetering on the brink of resignation on Sunday night, and it was still possible he could go in the next few days. Even if he limps on, it is possible that someone ambitious such as Streeting could mount a challenge after Labour’s next expected electoral setback – either the Gorton & Denton byelection on February 26th, or Scottish and Welsh elections, and English local votes, on May 7th.
The thinking is that, ultimately, the prime minister is doomed. If Starmer were to somehow ride out the storm, that would be the biggest surprise of all.
