UK prime minister Keir Starmer is noted as an Arsenal football fan. But as he casts his eyes north towards Manchester this week, he enters a period infamously defined by that city’s most famous footballing personality, former Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson.
In Ferguson’s parlance, Starmer now enters “squeaky bum time”, the most critical period in a contest when anything can happen and everything is decided as the climax nears.
Starmer’s seat will be squeaking as he squirms on it with tension. A crucial vote in Greater Manchester, the Gorton and Denton byelection, is on a knife edge.
The result on Friday morning will be critical for his wavering authority as leader of the Labour Party, and by extension, Britain.
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The vote is on Thursday, while the result is expected on Friday by about 4am, possibly later with recounts.
The contest is a toss-up between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens. The specific order in which those three parties finish will determine whether Starmer has a good weekend, buoyed by the relief of hanging on, or whether he spends it on the phone to party power brokers trying to shore up his shaky position.
The last byelection for the House of Commons was in April 2025 in Runcorn and Helsby. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK beat Starmer’s party by just six votes in what was a rock-solid Labour heartland. It was an important result, because it proved Britain’s working classes were open to the right-wing party and Farage could pinch votes from Labour, making the prospect of a future Reform government more than just an outlandish fantasy.
The Gorton and Denton contest is potentially seismic for the shape of the next few years of British politics.
A Reform win would be damaging for Starmer, but it might not be a complete disaster. He could argue that the Greens had split the left-wing vote, allowing Farage’s party to sneak through the middle. He could take that message into future contests to hold off the challenge from the Greens on his left flank.
The worst of all worlds for Starmer would be a shock win for the Greens, which could even push Labour into third place behind Reform. In those circumstances, the UK government party would be stricken, under attack and haemorrhaging votes both left and right. The Greens could argue they were a left-wing alternative to Labour.
Senior Labour sources say their party is still on course for a narrow win, which would buy Starmer valuable breathing space after weeks of setbacks. Others in his party are less sure of a positive result. But Manchester is a Labour city – the party won’t be easily dislodged.
Either way, Starmer would be well advised to get an early night on Thursday. He will have his alarm clock set for early on Friday morning.
