It would be difficult to conceive of a higher stakes gamble by Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester – the ultimate winner-takes-all move. It is also a huge moment for UK prime minister Keir Starmer as he battles to save his faltering premiership.
Burnham’s plan to return to parliament in Westminster via an extremely risky byelection in the seat of Makerfield near Wigan has shot a bolt of lightning through a looming Labour leadership contest.
If Burnham wins, he may win all. If he loses, his career is effectively over.
As a sitting mayor, Burnham must still get the approval of Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) to run in a byelection in the constituency, whose sitting MP Josh Simons stepped down on Thursday to clear the way. But even that question alone is a test of Starmer’s dwindling strength.
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The NEC is meant to be stacked with the prime minister’s allies and it previously blocked Burnham from running in February’s byelection in Gorton & Denton, which had the effect of preventing him from returning to Westminster to challenge Starmer.
As an increasing number of Labour MPs clamour for Burnham’s return to rescue Labour from the depths plumbed under Starmer, pressure will be ramped up on the NEC to let Burnham run this time. If it does, it shows Starmer’s grip on his party’s ruling body has weakened. If the NEC doesn’t let Burnham run, then Labour will surely enter a civil war that may sweep aside the prime minister anyway.
Assuming Burnham is allowed to run in Makerfield, and the byelection happens before a Labour leadership contest, he will be taking on a monumental electoral challenge. Burnham is, by some distance, the most popular Labour Party politician in Britain, the so-called “King of the North”. Can the king win in Makerfield?
Simons’ majority in the 2024 general election was a slim 5,500 over a Reform candidate. Since then, Farage’s party has emerged as the dominant force locally.
Reform won a slew of electoral wards in the area in the disastrous (for Labour) local elections last week that sparked this leadership crisis for Starmer. It also won more than twice the vote achieved by Labour. Farage has already confirmed his party will “throw everything” at a Makerfield byelection.
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There is a real chance that, were he to run, Burnham - even with his huge public profile and track record as mayor - could lose this byelection. If he does, that will be the end of him as a political force in Britain.
But if he wins, he may as well ride back into Westminster on a shining steed like a conquistador. He will have that most precious of commodities in politics: a narrative. He will be able to say he has beaten Reform in its own backyard, which means he can teach the Labour Party how to beat it everywhere.
That would be a compelling argument to bring into a Labour leadership battle. If he wins in Makerfield, Burnham will also be able to argue, with some justification, that he triumphed in a seat that Starmer would have had no hope of winning if he had run himself.
It is also highly doubtful that Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who quit on Thursday as he prepares to challenge Starmer, would come close to winning somewhere like Makerfield.
This could be Burnham’s moment. What will Starmer do next? If he blocks Burnham from running, he risks appearing like a coward while the Greater Manchester mayor who was prepared to take on the bravest battle.
But if a weakened Starmer waves him through, he may as well be inscribing his own political tombstone.
All eyes are now on Labour’s NEC.
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