Kamala Harris continues to gain strength in the US presidential election, as polls nationally and in battleground states show her building leads or catching Donald Trump.
On FridayFiveThirtyEight, a leading polling analysis site, put Ms Harris, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for president, up by 2.1 points over her Republican rival in its national average.
In averages for swing states, where control of the White House rests, Ms Harris led in Michigan by two points, Pennsylvania by 1.1 point and Wisconsin by 1.8 points. Mr Trump led in Arizona by less than half a point and in Georgia by half a point.
In battleground states without enough polls to calculate averages, Mr Trump was ahead by about three points in North Carolina and the candidates were about level in Nevada. In the latter state, recent CBS and Bloomberg polls have given Ms Harris two-point leads while on Friday the Nevada Independent reported a poll showing the Democrat six points up.
Matt Gaetz perched on the tightrope between political glory and infamy
Donald Trump’s return adds urgency and uncertainty to third winter of full Russia-Ukraine war
Defending Donald Trump in legal litany pays off handsomely for new US deputy attorney general
If Democrats want to win the next US election, they should listen to Bernie Sanders
The US vice-president, aged 59, has shaken up the election race since mid-July, when Joe Biden (81) finally heeded calls from his own party to step aside for a younger candidate to take on Mr Trump, who is 78. He endorsed Ms Harris to take over the top of the Democratic ticket for this November, while he serves out his single term.
Amy Walter, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told the broadcaster PBS on Thursday that before Ms Harris entered the race, Mr Biden “was behind by a significant number, not just at the national popular vote, but in those ... battleground states. You can see almost six points in a state like Georgia and Nevada.
“Now, just in the time that Harris has been in the race, you have seen those numbers move pretty significantly toward Harris, four- or five-point shifts in those battleground states, which is mirroring what we’re seeing in the national poll as well.
“It hasn’t turned those states, though, from ones that favoured Trump to ones that now favour Harris. It just means now that the race is no longer as lopsided in Trump’s favour as it was, say, in late July ... which is why we’re calling this race a toss-up.”
[ Kamala Harris press performances prompt more questions than answersOpens in new window ]
The same day, the Cook Political Report changed its ratings for three Sun belt swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – from “leans Republican” to “toss-up”.
Another analysis site, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia, changed Georgia from leans Republican to toss-up. Looking north, the site changed Minnesota and New Hampshire, states where Mr Trump made gains while Mr Biden was top of the Democratic ticket, from leans Democratic to likely Democratic.
Ms Harris’s choice for vice-president, Tim Walz, is governor of Minnesota. Any Walz effect on polling has not yet been felt but some observers expressed surprise that Ms Harris passed over Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, a battleground state.
Others argued back. For Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Joel K Goldstein said that though Mr Shapiro and Mark Kelly, the Arizona senator who was also closely considered, were “both from competitive states that were ... important pieces of the 306 electoral votes Democrats won in 2020″, in choosing Mr Walz, “Harris demonstrated yet again that vice-presidential selection turns on matters other than the over-hyped criterion of home-state advantage.
“Walz also had the most experience [17½ years] in traditional vice-presidential feeder positions [senator, governor, member of the House of Representatives, holder of high federal executive office] of her options, which contrasts with the very limited experience [1½ years] of his Republican counterpart, Ohio senator JD Vance.”
Among widely noted individual polls, Ms Harris led for a second week in the Economist/YouGov survey, maintaining a two-point advantage. Reuters/Ipsos found Ms Harris up five points, 42 per cent-37 per cent, up two on the last such survey, taken just after Mr Biden withdrew. Ipsos said it also found in a separate poll Ms Harris leading Mr Trump 42 per cent-40 per cent in the seven battleground states, though it “did not break out results for individual states”.
A national poll from Marquette University in Wisconsin showed Ms Harris up six points, with 53 per cent support among likely voters to 47 per cent for Mr Trump. Ms Harris maintained that lead when other candidates were included. Robert F Kennedy Jr, the leading independent, took 6 per cent support. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Mr Kennedy’s support had fallen six points to 4 per cent since July.
The Marquette poll contained further good news for Ms Harris, pointing to her energising effect as the campaign heads for the home stretch: an 11-point rise in respondents saying they were very enthusiastic about voting in November. – Guardian
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis