A major new poll puts US vice-president Kamala Harris in advance of former president Donald Trump in three key swing states, signalling a dramatic reversal in momentum for the Democratic Party with three months to go until the election.
The vice-president leads the ex-president by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 per cent to 46 per cent, among almost 2,000 likely voters across the three states, according to new surveys by the New York Times and Siena College.
The polls were conducted between August 5th and 9th, in the week that Ms Harris named Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and a former high schoolteacher, as her running mate for November’s Democratic ticket.
It provides the clearest indication from crucial battleground states since president Joe Biden pulled out of the race and endorsed Ms Harris amid mounting concerns about the 81-year-old’s cognitive wellbeing and fitness to govern for a second term. The results come after months of polling that showed Biden either tied with or slightly behind Mr Trump.
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Ms Harris is viewed as more intelligent, more honest and more temperamentally fit to run the country than Mr Trump, according to the registered voters polled.
The findings, published on Saturday by the New York Times, will boost the Democrats, as Harris and Walz continue criss-crossing the country on their first week on the campaign trail together, holding a slew of events in swing states that are likely to decide the outcome of the election.
On Saturday, the candidates held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, a state the Biden-Harris ticket won by more than two points in 2020.
While only a snapshot, Democrats will probably be heartened to see that 60 per cent of the surveyed independent voters, who always play a major role in deciding the outcome of the race, said they are satisfied with the choice of presidential candidates, compared with 45 per cent in May.
The swing appears to be largely driven by evolving voter perceptions of Ms Harris, who has been praised for her positivity and future-focused stump speeches on the campaign trail. In Pennsylvania, where Mr Biden beat Mr Trump by just more than 80,000 votes four years ago, her favourability rating has surged by 10 points since last month among registered voters, according to Times/Siena polling.
Ms Harris will need to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – crucial battleground states that Mr Biden clinched in 2020 – if the Democrats are to regain the White House.
The latest polls will probably further anger Mr Trump, whose few recent campaign events have largely been dominated by ire – and apparent disbelief – at the rapid shift in momentum since naming JD Vance, the Ohio senator and former venture capitalist, as his running mate amid a celebratory atmosphere at the Republican national convention less than a month ago.
Mr Vance, who has been derided as “weird” by the Democrats as he doubles down on 2021 comments about the US being run by “childless cat ladies”, is broadly viewed unfavourably or unenthusiastically by the majority of independents, Democrats and registered Republicans, the new poll found.
But Democrats still have work to do to communicate Ms Harris’ vision for the country. The poll found that 60 per cent of registered voters think Mr Trump has a clear vision of the country, compared with only 53 per cent when asked about Ms Harris.
Crucially, Mr Trump is also still leading when it comes to confidence over handling the economy and immigration – two of the three key issues for voters, according to polls.
Still, Ms Harris has a 24-point advantage over Trump when it comes to abortion, an issue which Democrats hope will help get out the vote in key swing states such as Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also viewed significantly more favourably when it comes to democracy than Mr Trump, who continues to face charges related to his alleged role in subverting the 2020 election results and the January 6th insurrection in Washington. – Guardian