It will come as little solace to the Government that Ireland is not among the countries selected by US president Donald Trump for his latest round of tariff threats, this time relating to Greenland.
The move threatens to upend the EU/US trade deal agreed last year and spark a European reaction with moves to hit American products and companies. If this develops, Ireland cannot avoid being caught up in it.
Trump has said he will impose 10 per cent tariffs on all products coming from France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland from the start of February. These will presumably be applied on top of existing tariffs. He says this will rise to 25 per cent in June if a deal is not reached over ownership of the Arctic island.
Bluster is, of course, part of his normal negotiating tactics and we have seen before how tariff threats can fade away. But there is no obvious way forward in terms of the ownership of Greenland that Europe can sign up to.
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The potential consequences are serious. It is inconceivable that the EU could progress with the implementation of the US/EU trade deal - agreed last summer - unless Trump draws back on this latest threats. It is already clear that a key European Parliament vote on the deal will be put on hold.
If Trump pushes ahead with his threat, which involves tariffs on the exports of six EU members and two non members, the EU is then likely to impose tariffs on US products entering its market in response. This could probably be agreed fairly quickly. Other measures, such as targeting big US companies in Europe, including digital service firms, are an option under a so-called anti-coercion instrument. France is calling for this to be used, but other countries, including Ireland, may call for some caution.
As the country most reliant on US investment and trade- and the EU home of many of the big digital tech companies - this kind of escalating trade or economic war would be bad news for Ireland. The Irish economy has, so far, weathered Trump-related uncertainty and tariffs better than expected. But many key sectors have so far been spared.
Ireland has no choice but to stand with the other member states in whatever measures they decide and Taoiseach Micheál Martin told RTÉ radio on Sunday that the EU must stand together. Dublin is calling for initial caution in the EU response, but the Taoiseach said that if Trump does impose new tariffs then Europe would have to respond.
It is impossible to say how this will develop. For Trump, it is unclear the level of domestic political support he would have for a move on Greenland – particularly as it threatens a complete fracturing of the relations with Europe. Tariffs will add to cost-of-living pressures in the US and hit American companies hard. There are already some signs of unrest from within his own Republican Party and concern on Wall Street and among US business. But so far nothing to stop the president in his tracks.
A complication for Trump may come in a Supreme Court decision, expected imminently, on whether he had the legal authority to impose many of the tariffs we have seen over the past year. The administration has said it can find other grounds if necessary. What legal basis it would rely on for the latest proposed tariffs is not clear.
Ireland’s policy has for years been based on acting as a bridge between the two sides, attracting billions in US investment as a result. Now we may be facing into trade and economic conflict, as well as a wider political rift with potentially far-reaching implications for Europe. Difficult decisions are likely to ahead for the Government, even if the precise shape of these are as yet unclear.
This story has a way to run yet and we have seen over the past year the chaotic and unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies. But just a few weeks into 2026, a new and potentially serious period of uncertainty and tension between Washington and European capitals lies ahead and for Ireland 2026 now looks a lot riskier.
