Tehran has so far refused to capitulate to Washington’s demands despite the US threat to renew the war launched on February 28th and paused by an extended ceasefire. If the US decides to initiate a new round of fighting, Iran could again target its Gulf neighbours and tighten its grip on maritime trade.
How might Iran reply to a resumption of the war?
Iran could resume its attacks on the energy infrastructure of Gulf Arab nations. This would involve strikes on the oilfields, gasfields and refineries of Gulf neighbours with a US military presence such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Does Iran have the military capacity to retaliate?
Iran retains some 70 per cent of its mobile missile launchers and 70 per cent of its pre-war short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Iran has also secured access to 90 per cent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities, which are “partially or fully operational”, US intelligence sources told The New York Times.
How else might Iran retaliate?
Tehran’s Yemeni Houthi allies could block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden through which 10 per cent of global trade flows. Iran’s current blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 per cent of the world’s liquefied natural gas supply, has already placed huge pressure on global markets. Blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could force the US to enter the war directly on two maritime fronts rather than one.
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Can the US meet the challenge militarily?
US inventories have shrunk. About 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles – almost all of its arsenal – and 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles have been expended. This is 10 times the number the Pentagon buys annually. Some 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles, costing $4 million (€3.4 million) each, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and surface-to-surface semi-ballistic missiles have been used. The Pentagon rushed bombs, missiles and other weaponry to the region from Asia and Europe.
Where does this situation leave the US?
US president Donald Trump is seeking an exit from the war, which he launched with Israel in the expectation it would last four or five days rather than 80.
According to Iran’s official news agency, the US has put forward five unacceptable proposals: Washington would pay no compensation to Iran for US damage and destruction; Iran would transfer its 440kg of enriched uranium to the US; Iran would be limited to one nuclear facility; at least 75 per cent of Iran’s assets in foreign banks would remain frozen; and the war would continue during negotiations.
Does Iran have a plan?
Iran wants a ceasefire on all fronts; an end to this war and other regional conflicts; the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and freedom of navigation; war reparations to be paid by Washington; the lifting of all sanctions; and the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the US. Iran says it would repudiate nuclear weaponry and agree to a pause in uranium enrichment of 12 years – the US is demanding a pause of 20 years.
