Stocktake: Fund manager sentiment is ‘dire’

Bank of America notes that most indicators are at levels suggesting investor capitulation

Fund managers worry that rising interest rates and inflation will lead to stagflation.
Fund managers worry that rising interest rates and inflation will lead to stagflation.

“Wall Street sentiment is dire.” Bank of America’s pithy summation of current fund manager sentiment is no exaggeration. BofA’s latest fund manager survey shows 83 per cent expect stagflation within a year. Global growth optimism is at all-time lows. Profits expectations have hit levels unseen since 2008. Equity allocations are lower than at market lows in 2002, 2011, 2012 and 2016, notes sentiment expert Urban Carmel.

Indeed, BofA notes most indicators are at levels suggesting investor capitulation. However, BofA’s Michael Hartnett, who has been adept in his market calls this year, remains cautious. We need a “big high” in bond yields and inflation, and the Federal Reserve to get “uber-hawkish”. Until then, there will be “no big low in stocks”.