Fund managers may think this is a bear market rally, but momentum indicators suggest otherwise. The latest such indicator is noted by Nautilus Capital, which points out that for the first time in two years, the S&P 500 has registered 10 consecutive days above its one-year moving average.

Historically, this kind of trend turnaround has been a “robust signal”, with above-average three-, six-, 12- and 24-month returns. Indeed, looking at 15 prior instances, stocks were higher a year later on all but one occasion.