Donald Trump likes to think stock markets love him, but a recent study suggests otherwise.
Trump says stocks are rallying because investors expect him to win November’s presidential election. Of course, stocks rallied hard for most of 2020; was this because investors were delightedly pricing in a Biden victory in November 2020? Both claims are silly.
Multiple factors influence markets, so assessing a president’s impact is inherently difficult.
A recent study, Who is the Most Beloved President by Wall Street?, tries to answer the question by excluding external factors such as interest rates and valuation that are beyond a president’s control. On this basis, the “best” president for markets was actually Jimmy Carter, due to the difficult economic conditions he faced. The “worst” performer was another surprise – Ronald Reagan, with the study suggesting stock returns should have been much higher during his presidency.
Overall, the study suggests Carter was the only “good” president, Reagan and Gerald Ford were the only “bad” presidents, and the rest were “useless”, having little impact either way. This includes Trump, who is ranked below Obama, Clinton, and various other Democrat presidents.
Trump is not beloved by investors, no matter how many times he tries to say otherwise.
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