Annual inflation climbs to 2.9%, driven largely by energy prices

Rising energy prices drove inflation higher last month, bringing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent from 2

Rising energy prices drove inflation higher last month, bringing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent, its highest level in more than a year.

Figures published by the Central Statistics Office show that consumer prices rose 0.2 per cent in November, driven by a 2.9 per cent increase in petrol prices, a 5.1 per cent jump in diesel and a significant jump in the price of home heating fuels.

Energy prices are running 15.3 per cent ahead of last year.

Education costs also rose in the month, up 5.4 per cent year-on-year.

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On an EU harmonised basis, the annual inflation rate rose to 2.8 per cent from 2.5 per cent in October and against a euro-zone average of 2.4 per cent.

Inflation has now risen steadily since March, when the annual rate stood at 1.3 per cent and is at a level not seen since September of last year.

However, economists expect a significant fall next month as falling oil prices feed into the index and the effect of last year's inflationary budget increases in excise duties falls out of the reckoning.

Dr Dan McLaughlin, chief economist at Bank of Ireland, says the annual rate may fall back to 2.3 per cent, bringing the average for the year as a whole to 2.2 per cent.

However, Bloxham economist Mr Alan McQuaid warned that deflationary influences could be offset by rising electricity prices, allowing the inflation to fall back only to 2.7 per cent.

He also warned that "further stealth taxes in the pipeline", particularly higher local authority, hospital and utility charges, are likely to see inflation run above 3 per cent for the first half of the year.

Goodbody economist Mr Dermot O'Leary said the figures masked some sharp divergences, with the annual rate of increase in services running at 4 per cent, well ahead of the 1.8 per cent rise year-on-year for the price of goods.

Food and drink prices fell last month, as did the cost of hotel accommodation and, despite, climbing rising over the past quarter, clothing prices are still 3.3 per cent down on last year.

Housing costs, however, continue to rise, running 8 per cent ahead of November 2003, a figure fuelled by rising mortgage interest costs, according to the index.

Fine Gael said last night that consumer prices were running at almost two-and-a-half times the rate of price increases in the UK and well ahead of the EU average.

Labour's consumer affairs spokeswoman, Ms Kathleen Lynch, said inflation was having a particular impact on families on low and average incomes.

"Increases have been most prevalent in areas such as utility bills, transport costs and health charges," she said.

"These are the everyday goods and services on which we all rely."

Dominic Coyle

Dominic Coyle

Dominic Coyle is Deputy Business Editor of The Irish Times