Viewers wrapping themselves in the Irish flag before Sunday night’s Oscar ceremony may end up with mixed feelings about Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. The epic biopic will, most likely, giveth and taketh away (like our Lord). For a good portion of awards season, Dr Barbie-Snub of Gong University was predicting a tight race between Cillian Murphy, who plays the eponymous physicist, and Paul Giamatti, touching in Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.
The Golden Globes’ eccentric habit of awarding separately for comedy and drama allowed both to triumph. Giamatti’s subsequent win at the erratic Critics’ Choice awards was not hugely significant in itself, but the charming picture of him at the In-N-Out burger chain afterwards boosted his profile. More than one wag suggested that, if Murphy won at Bafta, he needed to get himself to Supermac’s pronto. He did indeed take the British award.
If Giamatti could triumph at the Screen Actors Guild Awards – more at home to Americans – then we looked to have a thrilling 50-50 race. That didn’t happen. Murphy gave another of his dignified speeches and the bookies pulled his odds in to an unbackable 1/14. Giamatti could still win but it would count as an even bigger shock than Olivia Colman getting past Glenn Close in 2019.
Oscars: Who should win - and who will win?
A Murphy victory would be no small thing. He would become, after Daniel Day Lewis, the second Irish citizen to win the best actor Oscar. Puzzlingly for a nation that enjoys an emote before the limelight, such a win would – putting Murphy alongside Day-Lewis, Barry Fitzgerald and Brenda Fricker – be only the fourth for an Irish person in any acting category throughout the Oscars’ 96-year history. He has carried himself with calm dignity. No controversies have dogged his path.
Oppenheimer giveth.
The three Irish nominees, in two categories, for Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things will, most likely, have less to thank Oppenheimer for. That extraordinary, transgressive drama, winner of the Golden Lion at Venice International Film Festival, looks to be in second place for best picture. Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe, the nominated producers from Dublin’s Element Pictures will, however, be aware that Nolan’s blockbuster has spent the past month pulling away. No film has ever won best film at Bafta, best feature at the Producers Guild of America, best motion-picture director at the Directors Guild of America and best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild, or Sag, without taking best picture at the Oscars. Oppenheimer managed all those.
The Oscars have got out of the habit of handing everything to booming epics. Your Lawrence of Arabia. Your Last Emperor. Your Lord of the Rings. Oppenheimer, despite 13 nominations, seems unlikely to come close to the record 11 wins. But a sweep in the technical categories should take Hoyte van Hoytema, the film’s experienced cinematographer, past Robbie Ryan, the Dubliner who is up for Poor Things (though Ryan did win with the British Society of Cinematographers).
Oppenheimer taketh away. The film has become death, destroyer of awards season.
That surge, added to dead certs elsewhere, has left us gasping for a source of excitement. Early prognosticators were deprived of a tense dual in best supporting actress when it was announced that Lily Gladstone, strong in Killers of the Flower Moon, would campaign for the lead prize. (She is a reasonable fit for either category.) Da’Vine Joy Randolph, outstanding as a bereaved mother in The Holdovers, hasn’t looked back since, winning everywhere she competed. Robert Downey jnr, antagonist in Oppenheimer, has been similarly bossy. His line in suave, self-deprecatory acceptance speeches has cemented his status as a rampaging favourite. You surely don’t need to be told who is winning best director. Let’s just say Murphy and Downey jnr will have thanked the triumphant Anglo-American before he makes it to the stage (unless they jiggle around with the running order again).
Best supporting actress’s loss has been best actress’s gain. Gladstone’s arrival there initially saw her nudged right to the front of the pack. The contrast with Emma Stone’s performance in Poor Things made for a perfect (friendly, it seems) rivalry. Gladstone is steady and measured as her character perishes slowly over ticking hours. Stone eats up the screen with her carnivalesque turn as a variation on Bride of Frankenstein. Both won at the Globes. But when Gladstone failed to get even a nomination at Bafta it looked as if she might be out for the count. Again, Sag turned things around. When a sportsmanlike Stone leapt ecstatically to her feet as Gladstone’s name was read out she could have been acting for all those who yearned for some excitement at an increasingly unsurprising awards show.
With all these precursors, we now know too much about what Oscar voters think. Best actress is, however, now 50-50. If Stone, who triumphed for La La Land in 2017, wins her second Oscar she will – this scarcely seems possible – be older than Elizabeth Taylor when she scored number two for Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? in 1967. Gladstone would be the first person of Native American heritage to win an acting Oscar. (She also genuinely is descended from a cousin of William Ewart Gladstone.)
Mention of Stone’s challenge does conjure up the possibility – unlikely, but not that unlikely – of Poor Things equalling an unwanted record. Lanthimos’s film scored 11 nods. That is the same as the two films that tie the record for most nominations without a win: The Turning Point and the original version of The Color Purple. Here’s the worrying stat. Over at GoldDerby.com, the most venerable awards-season resource, Poor Things is, at time of writing, lone favourite in none of those 11 races. If it fails to sneak past close rival Barbie in production design or costumes, or Maestro in makeup and hair, then, as the ceremony draws to a close, that best actress prize will take on even more significance for Lanthimos, Guiney and Lowe. We’re betting it will sneak something before then. It is true that, last year, The Banshees of Inisherin, the big local hope, lost in all nine of its races, but Poor Things has made twice as much at the box office. It’s a hit, and that matters.
The nominations did confirm that the voting body has changed. As recently as 10 years ago it would have seemed impossible for a film as unconventional and challenging as Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest to rack up five nominations. A win in best picture seems close to impossible but the Holocaust drama should become the first UK production to win best international feature (formally best foreign-language film).
The team can thank the French, who haven’t won here for more than 30 years, for having a relatively clear run at that prize. The authorities across La Manche named Tran Anh Hung’s The Taste of Things over Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, winner of the Palme d’Or, as France’s submission for the prize – each nation just gets one – and then, no doubt, shuffled feet in embarrassment as their pick failed to get a nomination. Triet does, however, look, along with her collaborator Arthur Harari, to be in with a great shot of winning best original screenplay.
Irish viewers have some unambiguous cause for celebration this year. Due to a shift in the starting time – now, at 4pm Pacific Time, more afternoon than evening – and an oddity involving daylight savings, the Oscars will kick off a whole two hours earlier here than was the case a few years ago. Eleven o’clock at night almost counts as prime time here.
What will we expect to see?
The roaring fiasco of 2022 still seems to be in the organisers’ minds. Even without the embarrassment that was “the slap”, they would have been forced to defend not broadcasting certain awards live, some Zack Snyder thing winning the excruciating “Oscars fan favourite” vote, skateboarders as presenters and the dire script for its, hosts Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes. Last year Jimmy Kimmel, the 21st century’s “safe pair of hands”, returned to smooth out an efficient, reassuringly unexciting ceremony. He’s back to showcase the sangfroid he perfected, in 2017, when Faye Dunaway read out the wrong best-picture winner.
Viewing figures were up on previous years but, given the confusion of the Covid era, that was to be expected. The notion used to be that the figures swelled when the nominated films were popular; the Titanic year still has the highest viewership of any live awards show in US history. So, with both films from the Barbenheimer portmanteau heavily nominated, we should expect some sort of boom in watching eyes. If you want awful jokes about Greta Gerwig’s feminist fantasia and Christopher Nolan’s sombre sprawl then this is the place to go.
The recent social-media buzz around certain performances at last month’s Grammys – from Tracy Chapman to Miley Cyrus – says something about the resilience of awards shows, and the news that Ryan Gosling seems likely to perform I’m Just Ken, from Barbie, is sure to further excite all those “content” junkies. The 2022 experience will, nonetheless, have alerted the Oscar bosses that you can’t muck around too much with tradition. Just four years away from the awards’ centenary, nobody sane wants to immolate the grand old dame of Hollywood Boulevard as she gets in sight of her great celebration.
The news that, returning to a tasteful innovation from 2009, previous Oscar winners will introduce the current acting nominees is welcome. Fifteen years ago Sophia Loren and Shirley MacLaine (both still with us, happily) turned out to celebrate their successors. Could they persuade Day-Lewis to introduce Murphy? I wouldn’t bet on it. But we have heard that Nicolas Cage, Matthew McConaughey and Al Pacino, all former winners, will be there to do something or other. If the Oscars aren’t connected with their past they are nothing. They were scarcely in their teens before they began looking backwards. The most moving moment in the show’s history was surely the return of the exiled Charlie Chaplin in 1972.
Despite what some blowhards may claim, politics has long been a part of that tradition. Sacheen Littlefeather in 1973. Susan Sarandon in 1993. Vanessa Redgrave complaining about “Zionist hoodlums” in 1978. Few feathers will be ruffled if mention is made of the Hollywood actors’ strike that closed the business down last autumn. (Indeed, expect a few gags on that from Kimmel.) The organisers will be more concerned about any break in the relative silence about the Gaza conflict that has persisted throughout awards season. Should any winner, aware that the statuette is now safe in their hand, address that issue there would be potential for serious tumult in the hall. Which may be a good reason to risk it.
[ Why is mouthy Hollywood so quiet on Israel and Gaza?Opens in new window ]
Something is sure to go wrong. Someone important will have their name left off the in-memoriam section. Someone will fall down the stairs. Someone may read out the wrong best-picture winner. Don’t forget David Niven’s streaker in 1974. The bigwigs will be hoping none of that happens. But they know it is one way of getting talked about. Content, baby, content. As David Niven definitely didn’t say.
The 96th Academy Awards: All the nominees, plus my predictions
Best picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer. No picture has won so much during the run in and lost. Forget about it. Should win: The Zone of Interest. It is extraordinary that something so daring got this far.
Best director
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Will win: Christopher Nolan. It has become common recently for director and picture to diverge but, if anything, Nolan seems an even more likely winner than his film. Should win: Jonathan Glazer. Big ideas executed in the most innovative fashion.
Best actor in a leading role
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Will win: Cillian Murphy. Was neck and neck. But the Sag award seems to have settled it. Should win: Cillian Murphy. A performance of enormous discipline.
Best actress in a leading role
- Annette Bening, Nyad
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
Will win: Lily Gladstone. Or Emma Stone. Neck and neck. But Gladstone seems to be on the upwards trajectory. Should win: Emma Stone. Or Gladstone. Two complementary turns. Or Hüller.
Best actress in a supporting role
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- America Ferrera, Barbie
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Has the “big moment”. Charming on the circuit. She’s in. Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Steals every scene without any vulgar flamboyance.
Best actor in a supporting role
- Sterling K Brown, American Fiction
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey jnr, Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Will win: Robert Downey jnr. The power of “overdue”. And also, to be fair, a cunning performance that avoids pantomime villain. Should win: Mark Ruffalo. Despite a wandering accent, his best comic turn. Relishes the pantomime villain.
Best adapted screenplay
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Will win: American Fiction. Been coming up on the rails since the film won People’s Choice at Toronto. Should win: The Zone of Interest. The technical bravura somewhat obscures the subtlety of the script.
Best original screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- May December
- Past Lives
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall. This is a close one. But the Palme d’Or winner has had them guessing for months. Don’t rule out The Holdovers. Should win: May December. Criminal that Todd Haynes’s sneaky comedy was omitted everywhere else.
Best cinematography
- El Conde
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
Will win: Oppenheimer. The sweep in technical is on. Should win: Poor Things. Robbie Ryan gets to work through all the weapons in his arsenal. Top fisheye action.
Best editing
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will win: Oppenheimer. It is an action film in disguise, and they always triumph here. (Also, it’s winning best picture.) Should win: Poor Things. A period piece with the rhythm of a fluid nightmare.
Best animated feature film
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will win: The Boy and the Heron. Fascinating race between Hayao Miyazaki’s traditional Japanese fable and the glorious fizz of Spider-Verse. Should win: The Boy and the Heron. Both front-runners would be worthy but Spider-Verse will get another chance with part three.
Best international feature film
- The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany
- Io Capitano, Italy
- Perfect Days, Japan
- Society of the Snow, Spain
- The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
Will win: The Zone of Interest. Though the films here are all strong, there was no competition once Anatomy of a Fall failed to become the French submission. Should win: The Zone of Interest. See above. First UK win here.
Best documentary feature film
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol. The Ukraine conflict is a sure-fire winner with this electorate. Should win: Four Daughters. A strong story from Tunisia that cunningly blends genres.
Best sound
- The Creator
- Maestro
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer. It’s loud, baby. Should win: The Zone of Interest. Simply, among the most impressive and affecting sound design ever nominated. The voters may still grasp that.
Best original song
- What Was I Made For? – Barbie
- I’m Just Ken – Barbie
- The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot
- It Never Went Away – American Symphony
- Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon
Will win: What was I Made for? From Barbie. Or the Ken one. The rest aren’t much cop. So toss a coin. Should win: I’m Just Ken from Barbie. You know what this is? It’s fun (though it’s no Moon River).
Best original score
- American Fiction
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will win: Oppenheimer. It’s a large part of the mood. Will get carried along in the momentum. Should win: Poor Things. Jerskin Fendrix’s score has something no other nominee even attempts: wit.
Best makeup and hairstyling
- Golda
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
Will win: Maestro. By a nose. Ha ha! Should win: Poor Things. Lavish is so hard. Lavish plus sinister is more tricky.
Best costume design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will win: Poor Things. It’s a really tough fight with Barbie, but Poor Things has been seen, and people love its look. Should win: Poor Things. Has a whiff of the avant-garde that keeps its distance from Sunday-evening period telly.
Best production design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will win: Poor Things. Another straight fight with Barbie. It feels as if just a few votes may decide this in a number of their showdowns. Should win: Poor Things. Though I feel Napoleon needs a break.
Best visual effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
Will win: Godzilla Minus One. With Oppenheimer inexplicably left off the shortlist, the veteran giant lizard gets his chance. Should win: How delightful if the Japanese phenomenon finally roars his way to an Oscar. Expect loud applause.
Best live action short film
- The After
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. A weird one. Wes Anderson will probably get his first Oscar in an unlikely section. Or will they baulk at a big Netflix film? Should win: Red, White and Blue. Focused film on a serious issue.
Best animated short film
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Our Uniform
- Pachyderme
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Will win: Letter to a Pig. Combines serious intent with breathtaking animation. Though they may weaken to John and Yoko’s star power. Should win: Letter to a Pig. See above. An unlikely companion piece to The Zone of Interest.
Best documentary short
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Island in Between
- The Last Repair Shop
- Nai Nai & Wai Po
Will win: The ABCs of Book Burning. Will appeal to the voters’ political leanings. Should win: The ABCs of Book Burning. Timely, makes good use of its young subjects without seeming manipulative.
