Warnings that the bill for upgrading and electrifying the commuter rail lines into Dublin – one of the Government’s key transport programmes – is running potentially hundreds of millions above the initial budget provisions will immediately prompt comparisons with the national children’s hospital. However, there are some major differences.
The €450 million or 46 per cent overrun on the hospital project since it received Government approval in April 2017 involves real money, while the costs of the Dart expansion programme are at this stage projections.
Yet there are some parallels; both projects saw financial estimates being made years in advance of completion, without the exact level of construction inflation for the period being known, and with designs not fully finalised.
New spending rules announced by Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe in December mean that in future a final decision on a major public capital project will only be given by the government when the tendered cost is known and figures are available for all associated risks.
Final designs for the overall Dart expansion plan are not yet near completion. While design work for the Maynooth line has commenced and a tender process for the Kildare line is under way, this has not yet started in relation to the northern and southeastern rail routes.
The National Transport Authority (NTA) said on Friday that the Dart expansion scheme would "have to be designed first, before a detailed delivery programme and a detailed funding profile can be finalised".
Figures
Ultimately it will be up to the next government to give the go ahead or otherwise to the project once all the figures are in. However, what seems clear is that the final bill will be significantly higher than the €2 billion allocation set out in the National Development Plan.
The aim of the Dart expansion plan is to transform rail capacity in the Greater Dublin Area at a time when many services are already facing serious overcrowding – with passenger numbers across the network increasing by over 5 per cent annually in recent years. Demand is expected to continue to increase strongly along with population growth in the years ahead.
Rail lines from Drogheda, Maynooth and Celbridge to Dublin city centre are to be electrified under the project, while there would also be a significant increase in rolling stock as well as upgraded signalling systems and junctions.
Within Irish Rail it is now estimated that the overall project will cost €2.609 billion or €600 million more than set out in the National development Plan. It is also believed that the full scale of the Dart expansion programme will not be delivered before 2027.
This represents an increase in the projected cost of more than €200 million on estimates drawn up as recently as May of last year. The increase is attributed to construction inflation running at higher than the 2.5 per cent previously forecast and the €49 million higher cost for 41 new train carriages announced by Minister for Transport Shane Ross several months ago.
Design process
However, these estimates are considered to be high-level forecasts, and there are risks that the costs involved could rise significantly as the design process evolves, if inflation increases further or in the event of planning delays.
There is also likely to be uncertainty around the exact cost of new trains to be purchased as part of the project until a deal is in place with a preferred manufacturer.
The Irish Times also reported on Friday that there were concerns that proposals to relocate the existing rail stations at Docklands to a new site at Spencer Dock, which is being examined by the NTA, could add an additional €100 million to the final bill.
