Northern Ireland's next election to the Stormont Assembly is not due until May 2022, but circumstances have already inflamed political temperatures. Northern politics faces the distinct possibility of a Sinn Féin first minister and, after almost 20 years, an end to DUP dominance of unionism. Persistently high Covid rates add to a sense of uncertainty; concern about an overborne health service may dull interest in electioneering until the vote draws nearer.
A LucidTalk poll last week had Sinn Féin on 25 per cent, in line with previous polls. That republicans are comfortably out in front no longer surprises analysts. The shocks were that unionists were led by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), just ahead of Traditional Unionist Voice, with the DUP tying with Alliance and the SDLP. But DUP standing has slipped steadily. The ruthless ousting of Arlene Foster and a rapid if shambolic counter-coup has hit the party's standing among unionists.
That the UUP could take back the prime position the DUP pushed them out of in 2004 would be particularly painful for Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP leader since July. Donaldson's defection from the Ulster Unionists helped copper-fasten the then new order in unionism. Now that entire political community is in upheaval. Sinn Féin's prime position has had less to do with republican astuteness than DUP strategy-free infighting, plus support for a Brexit bound to produce the Protocol they loathe.
Donaldson faces a new rival in Doug Beattie, an ex-career soldier who is liberal on social issues. Beattie inherited a weak UUP. Veteran MP Donaldson inherited a mess. None of his MLAs have rushed to stand down and give him the Stormont seat he needs for a First Minister nomination.
Stormont's two top jobs have identical power but the 'First' title remains the prize, a psychological lure which may produce the maximum nationalist vote for Sinn Féin. The central question is for unionists, asked to choose between the UUP, the TUV – whose articulate, relentlessly negative leader Jim Allister is its only Stormont representative – and the DUP. Northern Sinn Féin leader and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill's solid support for party president Mary Lou McDonald will likely ensure she gets the chance to take the Stormont top title, should it come Sinn Féin's way. Allister proposes that no unionist be nominated as deputy first minister, which the rules dictate would block O'Neill's elevation.
Another LucidTalks poll finding decried the proposition by current first minister, the DUP's Paul Givan, to follow Britain in scrapping all Covid restrictions. Yet another uncontroversial result hailed Robin Swann – the steady health minister during the Covid crisis, and the UUP's only minister in the Executive – as most popular Stormont politician.