Sir, – The president of Sinn Féin has an article in The Irish Times, arguing once again for a speedy commissioning of a Border poll on constitutional change ("Government must be active in conversation on a united Ireland", Opinion & Analysis, January 26th).
Her strategy is counter-productive. Mary Lou McDonald is technically correct in defining under what set of circumstances the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland can order a Border poll. However, there is precious little evidence that would encourage the Secretary of State to believe, in the terms of the 1998 Northern Ireland Act that, “it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.
It is an inconvenient truth for Sinn Féin’s president that the century of partition on the island represents 100 years of republican failure. For much of that time, unionists resisted the attempted coercion of the Provisional IRA’s bombs and bullets. Terrorism failed. The mixed message of “ballot paper in one hand, Armalite in the other” failed. The politics of persuasion is not working for republicans either.
Ms McDonald’s party has long argued that Northern Ireland is not working – a “failed statelet” being their chosen description. This ignores the first rule of marketing, which is, of course, to make what you are selling easy to buy. If Ms McDonald is to succeed where every other Irish republican has failed, she needs the people of the Republic of Ireland to vote to adopt a “failed statelet”, populated by 1.89 million people, half of whom do not want to join the new dispensation. How appealing!
The other Southern-based leaders, not least Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, and Leo Varadkar, the Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael, know the time is not right.
The late Seamus Mallon, deputy leader of the SDLP, bravely warned fellow nationalists before his death to beware a narrow vote for constitutional change. “50 per cent plus one” might be the basis for a Border poll to trigger constitutional change, but it would also be the basis for chaos. There is no merit in replacing one large minority with another.
Constitutional change is Sinn Féin’s primary aim and it pushes for it from the comfortable ground of misty-eyed aspiration; the sense that everything will be okay when the island is united. My aim is different. It is to create a society that is fair, peaceful and offers prosperity for all; where every citizen wakes up feeling they have as good a chance of experiencing a successful day as the next person. If we can agree that, then Northern Ireland’s constitutional status becomes a debate about the best strategy to achieve that aim. That is a much less comfortable place for Sinn Féin, requiring detailed discussion on facts; facts like Northern Ireland has received over £3 billion in Covid-19 mitigation funds. The Government of Ireland could not have matched that level of support.
Whether you wish to see the constitutional change or the status quo, the starting point is not a Border poll, it is a commitment to making Northern Ireland work, measured by the quality of our public services and how people feel about their wellbeing, in their finances and health. We should be building relationships that unite, not promoting polls that divide. – Yours, etc,
MIKE NESBITT, MLA,
Ulster Unionist Party,
Stormont,
Belfast.