So that was the sprint through to the Round of 16, a total of 48 matches played to evict just eight of the 24 teams, or a third of the participants. The pool stages of the Champions Cup are far more about jostling for position than muscling through.
After all, Ulster have squeezed through to the Round of 16 after winning their last match following three fairly emphatic defeats, albeit their, eh, reward is a tie away to Bordeaux-Bègles. As Les Girondins were racking up the tries at home to the Sharks on Sunday and thus opening the door for Richie Murphy’s team to qualify, Premier Sports’ Connor Morris (a polished commentator) ventured that Ulster fans would be crossing their fingers. Hmm, perhaps so, but for which outcome exactly?
Right now, a visit to Bordeaux looks a good deal more appealing off the pitch than on it for any visiting side. Had Ulster exited honourably in the wake of Friday’s 52-24 win over Exeter, they’d have faced a Challenge Cup Round of 16 tie away to Lyon.
As an aside, under the format proposed by the French to come into effect after next season, the top four of Bordeaux-Bègles, Leinster, Northampton and Toulon would have earned home quarter-finals against the winners of the La Rochelle-Munster, Glasgow-Leicester, Castres-Benetton and Toulouse-Sale ties, while Saracens, Clermont, Harlequins and Ulster would have dropped down to the Challenge Cup.
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In any event, Ulster’s defensive shortcomings out wide were exposed again even by a weakened Exeter, and they now have to clip the wings of Damian Penaud and Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who have scored 15 of Bordeaux-Bègles’s 33 tries in four games. Noel McNamara landed on his feet when taking up Yannick Bru’s offer to be their backs coach. They also beat Ulster 40-19, pulling away at the Kingspan in round two.
By comparison, Connacht might have had misgivings about failing to qualify for the Champions Cup but they are probably looking forward to the knock-out stages of the Challenge Cup with a good deal more anticipation after their maximum 20-point haul earned them top seeding and home advantage potentially all the way to the final.
If they beat Cardiff at home in the Round of 16 they would then face the winners of the Perpignan-Bath tie in the quarter-finals, and victory there would mean a semi-final against one of the Ospreys, Lyon, Sharks or Scarlets.
Ian Costello and the Munster camp could scarcely conceal their disappointment despite the epic nature of their 34-32 defeat in Northampton. That completed another what-might-have-been pool campaign and condemned them to a third Round of 16 away tie in succession.
Both of their away games in Castres and Northampton were winnable. But in the last three seasons Munster have won five, drawn one and lost six of their dozen pool games, and so their route to the final is, potentially, away to La Rochelle, Bordeaux-Bègles and Toulouse.
By contrast, Leinster’s third successive top-two seeding has earned them the possibility of a home passage to a decider (in Cardiff) for the third season running and into a fourth successive final. They’re also in the opposite half of the draw from the French big guns.
Their fans are spoiled really. You’d hope the vast majority appreciate how fortunate they are to support such a consistently competitive team. Last Saturday’s 47-21 victory over Bath was Leinster’s 27th pool win in a row, home or away, in this competition, starting after a 28-27 defeat away to Toulouse in October 2018; excluding Montpellier’s walkover four seasons ago.
Since their quarter-final loss against Saracens in 2021 in an Aviva echo chamber, Leinster have won 17 of their last 18 Champions Cup games at home, the exception being that loss to La Rochelle in 2023 final.
That remains Leinster’s only defeat in front of a home crowd since the 20-16 loss to Toulon in December 2015 and the win over Bath was their 21st pool win in succession at home. Such consistency is phenomenal really and is largely overlooked amid the regrets and anticlimax of losing three finals in a row.
In their unrelenting quest for that elusive fourth star, the signings of Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman and Jordie Barrett have, in their own unique ways, strengthened Leinster’s hand. They have also taken a radical departure from the Stuart Lancaster-infused rejuvenation over a six-year period by developing a new defence and mindset under the influence of Jacques Nienaber.
The manner in which the players have enthusiastically bought into something new is a testimony to Nienaber’s inspiring nature, even if Bath exposed some glitches in outflanking Leinster’s high-wire, high-reward blitz.
There also remains a debate as to how much Leinster have veered away from their DNA and whether their remodelled game can deliver that fourth star.
Encouragingly, those glitches served to provoke Leinster into playing their most ambitious and fluent attacking rugby of their unbeaten season to date.
Despite that, their try-scoring average of 3.75 (15 tries in four games) is their lowest in the pool stages since 2017-18, when Leinster scored 22 tries in six pool games at an average of 3.66. Their average try-scoring rate in the intervening pool campaigns has been 4.5, 4.6, 4.5, 10, seven and, last season, 4.25. They also had better attacking metrics across the board and scored more points in the peak Lancaster years, but after Saturday’s game Leo Cullen stressed that no two campaigns are the same.
For example, whereas previous visitors to the RDS or the Aviva might have sent second-string teams, not so Clermont or Bath. The other Premiership high-flyers and La Rochelle away were not exactly in the “gimme” category either.
Cullen cited the prime example of Gloucester, who sent over an understrength team two seasons ago before being beaten 57-0, as did Montpellier four seasons ago before a 89-7 hammering, and there have been others.
Now it starts becoming progressively more challenging. Yet such is Leinster’s ridiculously high bar that a positive judgment on their season and their remodelled approach depends on them reaching another final. And winning it.
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