We’re putting on the hindsight goggles again.
Leinster used the World Cup analogy coming out of lockdown. The theory was sound. Pool matches were the interpros and Pro14 finale with Saracens the first major obstacle in a do-or-die quarter-final.
It proved a little too prescient. Their 2019/20 season went the same way as Ireland’s last three World Cup campaigns. No semi-final and far too many regrets.
In normal circumstances – whatever that means anymore – Leinster have two vital Champions Cup matches in October, before losing their best players for a month, two vital Champions Cup matches in December after which the elite players enter Ireland camp before two vital Champions Cup matches in January.
Gordon D'Arcy: Toulouse primed to expose Ulster’s limitations
Gordon D’Arcy: Munster persist with a game they are only partially resourced to play
Gordon D’Arcy: Munster need constructive chaos to derail blue juggernaut
Gordon D’Arcy: Irish players know it only takes one idiotic moment to bring rugby down
The Sextons, Ringroses, Van der Fliers are gone again for the Six Nations until late March – a few do not return due to injury after playing at a higher standard than what they face in a European quarter-final.
These are truly weird times when we miss such convoluted structures. Thing is though, they work for us. I am turning a negative into a positive. Normally Leo Cullen is quietly lamenting the lack of access to key players as April looms but the players do come back battle hardened.
Now, Saracens deserved their victory all ends up, but the Leinster players will not see it this way. With the pink and black on their spots, they badly miscued the blue ball. In the first 20 minutes we saw ageing heavyweights, hastened by the absence of international calibre reserves, bringing Leinster down a dark alley.
Cullen's team had not experienced a remotely similar stranglehold since St James's Park in May 2019. Actually, it must have felt familiar to what Sexton et al experienced at Twickenham last March or chasing shadows in Tokyo.
The ‘here we are again’ perspective after Leinster’s maul and scrum were dismantled presents a seemingly insurmountable problem for Irish rugby. I don’t buy that. There are multiple reasons for the season ending so abruptly last Saturday.
Leinster were taken apart by half the English pack, the Springbok tighthead, a powerful Scottish lock and two dyed in the wool Saracens operating off a simple, efficient strategy.
The next fear is that Ireland will be exposed in the same brutal fashion at an empty Twickenham on November 21st
In the motivational stakes Sarries won by a distance. They played for each other as if their time together depended upon it. Because it did; Richard Wigglesworth, Brad Barritt and lucky, lucky Michael Rhodes are leaving the club as soon as they lose a game.
All three of them were exceptional.
Defeat, or retaining their European title, marks the end of a dynasty – kept together by illicit financial means – and despite so many key figures, like George Kruis and Owen Farrell, being unavailable Mark McCall kept the skeleton intact.
From Mako to Maro, all the big game hunters showed up as their desire to stay together sparked what will go down as one of the signature ‘Wolf Pack’ displays that proves that Saracens are far from finished. Soon they go into exile but this victory proves that they will return with the same drive that got them to the top of the pile.
Robbie Henshaw absolutely needed to inform Johnny Sexton of Rhodes's flying head butt in the opening seconds, so his captain could ask referee Pascal Gauzère to make the TMO check for foul play.
Munster attempted to prepare Leinster for what Saracens brought to the Aviva Stadium. That was the only opposition that came close to the onslaught we witnessed on Saturday. But, in the Pro14 semi-final, Leinster scraped past a poor man's version of the European champions – the glaring differences being Wigglesworth's accurate box kicking, tortuous scrums and a defensive set for the ages.
Maro Itoje's turnover on 60 minutes could not have been more important. It was 22-10 and Leinster had carried through 28 phases as Sarries defended the 22 like it was their try line. Jack Conan is tackled by Duncan Taylor before Itoje gets over the ball without even trying to support his own body weight. Fair enough. He rode his luck by previously showing Gauzère the 'pictures' a ref needs to award a penalty.
In fact, Saracens most ferocious period of resistance ended with Jordon Larmour’s try to make it 22-17 but Leinster had used up most of their energy reserves and Rhodes survived a sanction for the high tackle on Sexton (at least a yellow card in a World Cup year but, hey, there you go).
The next fear is that Ireland will be exposed in the same brutal fashion at an empty Twickenham on November 21st. Itoje, with Owen Farrell back in harness, will attack the Irish lineout, scrum and maul because that is the proven route to continued dominance in a rivalry that has swung their way since February 2019.
The Leinster selection policy, a rotational system that yielded 25 straight wins against mediocre opposition, did not work in the Champions Cup quarter-final. Leinster missed the Scott Fardy nuisance factor and their back three was exposed.
The decision to go with Dev Toner's lineout security and a genuine Irish talent in 21-year-old Ryan Baird over a 36-year-old Wallaby who last played international rugby in 2015 is what the Irish system is supposed to be about. And while Baird was impressive off the bench, veterans across the ditch like Mako Vunipola won this game.
The Leinster scrum coughed up seven penalties, so we blame the props. High balls hit the grass, so we blame the fullback
Again, Captain Hindsight to the rescue. McCall said afterwards that the Saracens strategy was to put Leinster's backfield under pressure that they were unaccustomed to "20, 30 metres" from their own try line.
This worked. Larmour did enough problem solving from the first Munster game to last weekend to keep the 15 jersey. But the difference between what Munster attempted (twice) and what Saracens delivered proved significant; front foot possession allowed Wigglesworth to box kick with killer accuracy.
When you get overrun in one area on a rugby pitch everything begins to wobble. If the props are struggling the hooker or locks must overcompensate to steady matters. The backrow cannot scan for danger as they have to literally put their shoulders to the wheel.
There is panic in the backline. When you’re not sure about your inside defender you cannot make a dominant hit because you are hedging for the possibility of needing to rescue a team-mate. That brings the offload into play.
When your fullback cannot claim the high ball, everyone is scrambling to plug holes.
Every sentence that starts with 'I am no _____ expert but' should be taken with a pinch of salt. However, I am no scrum expert but Andrew Porter should not be dragged over the coals for the damage Mako Vunipola inflicted. Porter is relatively new to the position. He has started four Test matches at tighthead – against Wales, Fiji and Italy (twice) – and his preparation before facing the best loosehead in the business was Jeremy Loughman, Eric O'Sullivan and Cian Healy in training.
Scrummaging against Vunipola is an experience. Saracens went after him. Maybe Porter’s long-term future is as Healy’s successor.
Losing such a big game shines a very harsh light on certain players. The Leinster scrum coughed up seven penalties, so we blame the props. High balls hit the grass, so we blame the fullback.
The Leinster try scorers in this 25-17 season-ending defeat were Andrew Porter and Jordan Larmour but if they want to follow Tadhg Furlong and Rob Kearney into starting Ireland jerseys they need to showcase their technical excellence in European club games of this magnitude.
The end either exposes or justifies the means. Both players represent the long-term future of Irish rugby – alongside James Ryan, Baird, Ronán Kelleher and Caelan Doris – but these young men will need to exceed the performances of all the great players I wore the green jersey alongside if Ireland are to break that quarter-final ceiling in 2023.
The World Cup is still happening in France, right?
Report Card
What of the Irish provincial report cards?
There are big decisions to be made in every province. Unfortunately, everyone has to make do in the current financial crisis as most of the €5 million the IRFU are “burning” every month is on coach and player salaries.
Fix one of three areas – physicality, aerial contests, scrums – and the game was there to be stolen
Connacht burst out of lockdown with the sort of style – working off stable halfbacks who move opposing forwards all over the park – that could be an ideal blueprint for Ireland if we were ever to rely on one distinct way of playing. Abraham Papali’i was the ideal Big Man to recruit so long as he abandons the Owen Farrell tackle technique. An extra player or two in key positions may need to be borrowed from other squads.
Leinster will recover but they measure themselves on success in Europe. This is new to them but Saracens will make them take a long hard look at structural flaws.
Joe Schmidt may be off the scene but I can hear his analysis of the Saracens match; fix one of three areas – physicality, aerial contests, scrums – and the game was there to be stolen.
The promotion of Shane Daly and Craig Casey are immediate positives for Munster but losing RG Snyman after just seven minutes is beyond cruel.
Toulouse rammed home the reality that Dan McFarland's Ulster only performed for 20 minutes across the five matches since quarantine. They were light years off the pace at Stade Ernest-Wallon.
I believe it was Socrates who wrote: ‘it is what it is.’ Not to worry. Pull all the players together and Ireland are where they like to be, flying under the radar.
Leinster B-
Connacht C+
Ulster C+
Munster D-
