Foreign policy decisions and outcomes do not normally determine the results of US elections, which usually hinge on economic well-being and domestic concerns. That abiding truth about American politics is guiding President Joe Biden's efforts to deflect criticism of his hastily executed and chaotic exit from Afghanistan. He hopes to benefit from the 70 per cent voter support for ending the war and can point to the huge evacuation effort and a clearcut determination to meet the declared deadline. Against these positives are set the intelligence, political and alliance failures he must now tackle.
Standing out from the immediate drama, tragedies and strategic uncertainties of the last three weeks – in which the Afghan army's resistance to Taliban advances collapsed, the Afghan government fled and the Biden administration acted without consulting Nato allies – are several fundamental features of continuity in US policy. Biden has executed the Afghan withdrawal laid down but not delivered on by the Obama and Trump presidencies; he has tied that in with a pivot to Asia and a geopolitical fixation with China's threat to US dominance they shared; and he combines these policies with a common concern to reduce US overseas intervention.
This longer term strategy is what he wants to achieve, in the firm belief it accords with what most US voters want. There is plenty of evidence for that and his Republican opponents know it. Biden should be judged by how he deals with the mistakes he has made along the way, by his ability to show leadership and competence as he does so, and then by how the Afghan exit affects his ambitious domestic agenda of economic recovery and reconstruction, linked to a successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign.
It is too soon to reach firm conclusions on any of these issues. There were moments in the last weeks when the president appeared overwhelmed by and vulnerable to the rapidity of events, raising questions about his political capability. But his determination to see his main decision on exit through will stand to him. The US has sufficient power to ride out alliance criticisms and Biden seems reconciled to a less dominant and more decentred world role. Such qualities and policies, if sustained, should insulate his domestic priorities from major damage as important mid-term elections next year test his slim congressional majorities.
Biden has brought his long experience of foreign policy making to bear in deciding to get the US out of Afghanistan after 20 years of warfare, the deaths of at least 120,000 Afghans and 2,461 US soldiers and a colossal $1 trillion expenditure. But even if he is correct and there was no real alternative to withdrawal, he must now ensure his presidency is not defined by the mistakes and failures made in executing that decision.